That's right...
SURVIVOR TIME!!
Okay, well technically, it doesn't premier until September 15th, but CBS has put up their
Survivor: Guatemala web site.
Head on over there, and you can view pictures and bios of the 16 castaways. (Keep an eye on the site, because they'll probably put up the Intro videos soon! I've added a link to my sidebar!)
Some of my initial observations:
1. I have to say that there aren't really any particular standouts to me after reading the bios. Cindy the zookeeper could be interesting, but it also seems like we have a lot of young 20-somethings who think that they have mad skillz when it comes to "analyzing people." Now, I'm only 27, but I've already started to notice that a lot of young 20-somethings
think that they are hot stuff when it comes to reading people, but they just don't have the life experience yet to really pull it off.
2. It may just be bad pictures, but it seems to me that there is a distinct lack of male eye-candy this season. In particular, a number of the guys all seem to have weird brow / eye regions. I'm talking about Blake, Brandon, Brian, Jamie and Rafe. But Jamie actually has a kind of
Boone from Lost thing going on. Only a little though.
3. This may be the whitest group of castaways ever! Lydia is half Puerto Rican, but that seems to be it!
4. Does the older guy always have to be a fireman? Apparently, though this time we also have a 46year old ex-NFL quarterback.
5. Okay, this is the big one. Now I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but this seems like it can't just be coincidence. Not one, not two, but
THREE of this year's castaways have an identical twin! Check out the Bios! Cindy, Jamie and Judd all have identical twins!
Now am I crazy here or does that seem odd to any of you? Frankly, I can't imagine what they could possibly do with that without making the game unfair for either the twins or the non-twins, but still! Three identical twins out of a total of 16 people?
According to this website, the chances of giving birth to identical twins is 1 in 285. And that is
including the increased incidence of multiple births due to modern fertility treatments, many of which would not have been in use when these twins were conceived.
So I'm going to do a little math here. Please, if anyone spots an error in my calculations, please let me know. Just using the number from above, any one random person has a one in 285 chance of being an identical twin. (Actually, it's a little fuzzy because 1 in 285 births results in
two identical twins, but the other non-identical multiple births work the same way so I'm going to let them cancel each other out.)
So anyway, given the above assumtion of the odds, I used Microsoft Excel's Binomial Distribution Function to calculate the odds for this group. Now if the selection process was really random (as it relates to twins at any rate), then the odds of 1 out of 16 being an identical twin is approximately 5.3%.
The odds of 2 out of 16 being identical twins is approximately 0.14%.
The odds of 3 out of 16 being identical twins is approximately 0.002%.
Now before you say it, yes I
am a huge geek.
But given the above, I can't believe that the three twins are a coincidence, but what has Mark Burnett got up his sleeve? Will it be significant, or was it just a random whim of the casting agent? Only time will tell.
Though it does remind me that this week's Entertainment Weekly had a "Rumor of the Week" pointing out that there are only 16 castaways this season, when they had previously announced 18. The last few seasons have had 18 castaways. Last season had 20, though two were cut immediately. This time, only 16, but three of them are twins... What's up with that, I wonder?
Discuss...